M&A Value Realisation Tracker (India)

The problem

When an Indian company announces an acquisition, it states a thesis: cost savings, new customers, a stronger market position. Years later, almost nobody checks whether those promises came true, and the evidence is scattered across annual reports, investor decks and earnings calls.

Why this

Five years in audit taught me to test claims against the numbers. A CFO office needs the same test after a deal closes: did the value we paid for actually show up? Blume Ventures' Decoding Exits series decodes the announcement. This tracker checks what happened next.

How I'm going about it

1. Pick only deals whose thesis and targets the acquirer stated in its own public sources, such as filings, investor decks, annual reports and earnings calls.
2. Turn each thesis into a fixed test plan, with the claims, evidence sources, metrics and pass thresholds set before looking at the results.
3. Use AI only to pull the numbers out of filings. The comparison against each threshold is plain, deterministic math.
4. Check the statement lines an auditor would check, such as cost of goods, SG&A and headcount for cost savings, segment revenue for revenue gains, and goodwill impairment as a red flag.
5. Give every claim a verdict of Delivered, Partial, Missed, Too early or Unverifiable.